Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics (16): Measuring Public Opinion in Dictatorships

Measuring human rights requires a certain level of respect for human rights (freedom to travel, freedom to speak, to interview etc.). Trying to measure human rights in situations characterized by the absence of freedom is quite difficult, and can even lead to unexpected results: the absence of (access to) good data may give the impression that things aren’t as bad as they really are. Conversely, when a measurement shows a deteriorating situation, the cause of this may simply be better access to better data. And this better access to better data may be the result of more openness in society. Deteriorating measurements may therefore signal an actual improvement. I gave an example of this dynamic here (it’s an example of statistics on violence against women).

Measuring public opinion in authoritarian countries is always difficult, but if you ask the public if they love or hate their government, it’s likely that you’ll have higher rates of “love” in the more authoritarian countries. After all, in those countries it can be pretty dangerous to tell someone in the street that you hate your government. They choose to lie and say that they approve. That’s the safest answer but probably in many cases not the real one. I don’t believe for a second that the percentage of people approving of their government is 19 times higher in Azerbaijan than in Ukraine, when Ukraine is in fact much more liberal than Azerbaijan.

In the words of Robert Coalson:

The Gallup chart is actually an index of fear. What it reflects is not so much attitudes toward the government as a willingness to openly express one’s attitudes toward the government. As one member of RFE/RL’s Azerbaijan Service told me, “If someone walked up to me in Baku and asked me what I thought about the government, I’d say it was great too”.

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